These tipping points need transformative capacities in individuals and groups to make them happen and there are unlikely to be single points that can transform entire systems: it’s more likely that there are multiple positive tipping points around a range of solutions that need to be activated together to shift whole systems. These are points that trigger the sudden change in individuals and in collective systems needed to transform society into a climate resilient low carbon one. This way of thinking about social tipping points echoes the way physical tipping points can be seen as a pinch point in the system to be avoided and planned for.īut some groups are also starting to think about positive tipping points. These triggers might lead to massively increased costs and the social system may have to fundamentally shift its way of working. For example, flood risks could become uninsurable as climate risks escalate, critical infrastructure could fail and industries such as ski or coastal resorts could shut down. Within work on the economic costs of adaptation, socio-economic tipping points can refer to the points where climate change may suddenly negatively alter the functioning of social systems. Within social systems, however, tipping points can be thought of in many different ways. Scientists and policymakers can take into account non-linear feedback loops that might start to trigger cascades of change when thinking about future scenarios. Being aware of them means we are – in theory – more sensitised to the need to halt emissions before they are hit.
They are triggers to be avoided as they may set off unexpected consequences and lead to sudden and irreversible shifts in the planetary system. So, within physical science the concept of tipping points is clear. There are feedback mechanisms and loops that either support maintaining the planet in its current state (such as carbon uptake by land and oceans) or amplify a change and transition (such as forest diebacks). If global temperatures go beyond these points other systemic shifts could occur in the Indian monsoon, the climate of the Sahel and the jet stream.
For example, tipping points or cascades at temperature increases of around 1-3 degrees are likely to lead to changes such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, melting of alpine glaciers and destruction of coral reefs. These tipping points are points in the physical system where a small change in one dimension of the system could lead to cascades of impacts across related systems. The concept of tipping cascades, described as a ‘ Hothouse‘ or ‘ Uninhabitable Earth‘, have captured the media’s imagination. In the world of climate science, the concept of tipping points and tipping cascades are well established. This left me wondering, when is it useful to think about tipping points in social systems? What does it add to our understanding and our ability to work towards faster and more transformative climate action? Just a few weeks later, others were gathered in Bonn discussing transformational change for climate finance. These changes can be positive, like when generating power from renewables becomes cheaper than using coal, or negative, like the feedback loops from melting permafrost.Īt the European Climate Change Adaptation conference in Lisbon last month, I listened to researchers and practitioners from different disciplines discussing tipping points around climate change. Tipping points occur when a small change can lead to significant – potentially irreversible – shifts in the system as a whole.
0 kommentar(er)
